Morgan Stanley: European diesel stocks near record lows

Morgan Stanley has warned that Europe is facing an escalating diesel supply crisis, with inventories expected to decline to their lowest levels in years by the end of 2026. This is attributed to a convergence of factors, including shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Russian refineries, Russian restrictions on diesel exports, and higher diesel refining margins, all reflecting a supply shortage. European stocks are projected to gradually decline starting from August 2026, reaching around 299 million barrels by November—marking the lowest level since tracking began in 2015. Despite rising crude oil prices, prices for petroleum products like diesel have experienced larger gains. However, the market is showing signs that the current situation may not present significant opportunities for further increases, as supply shortages are expected to persist and impact fuel prices across Europe.

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