Global gas shortages raise Europe's winter costs

Europe faces the possibility of a harsh winter due to declining liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East, with global supplies expected to decrease to around 431 million tons by 2026, down from 440 million tons in 2025. The main reasons are ongoing tensions and attacks on oil tankers in the region, as well as Qatar's delayed export restart until October, which complicates gas procurement, raises shipping costs, and pushes prices higher. Gas prices are projected to reach approximately €54 per megawatt-hour during the filling season. This supply shortfall is putting significant pressure on European supplies, which continue to dwindle, driving up costs and increasing the risk of a difficult winter.

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