Iran conflict renews energy crisis concerns

Tensions between Iran and the United States have once again impacted the oil market, leading analysts to revise their forecasts upward for oil prices and delaying the return of oil flows from the Middle East due to ongoing clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. Restad Energy predicts that the likelihood of reaching a substantive agreement between the two sides has now decreased to 55%, with Brent crude potentially exceeding $120 per barrel by the last quarter of 2026 if disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz continue. According to the scenarios presented, continued escalation and stalled negotiations could restrict oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to less than 2 million barrels per day, pushing up oil prices and reducing global supplies. The current tensions have caused oil prices to fluctuate, with Brent exceeding $91 then dropping to around $82. It is expected that if the tensions ease, Brent prices could stabilize between $75 and $80 per barrel by 2026.

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