FAO forecasts grain prices rising until December

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) expects agricultural commodity prices to continue rising until next December, driven by supply disruptions and increases in energy and input costs. There is particular concern regarding wheat and rice, while the maize market appears more stable. Markets have been affected by the threats stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially concerning grain exports via the Black Sea. Estimates for wheat supplies and production have decreased by 4.3% compared to last year, and wheat prices have reached their highest levels in a week. The outlook for rice and wheat production remains vulnerable due to seasonal delays and rising transportation and operational costs. Additionally, the Hormuz Strait crisis and navigational disruptions have increased transportation and fertilizer purchase costs. With rising input prices, farmers are facing narrower profit margins, which may lead them to reduce input use or shift to cultivating less nitrogen-intensive crops. FAO anticipates that the impacts of rising food prices will become more evident in the second half of the year, with higher costs for final products such as bread and pasta.

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