OPEC increases 2024 oil demand forecast

OPEC has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2027 to 2.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 260,000 barrels from its July estimate. This reflects an expectation of a strong rebound after a year marked by sluggish growth and disruptions in energy markets. The organization expects that the growth in 2027 will be significantly higher compared to 2026, with demand expected to increase by only 600,000 barrels in 2026 versus 2.2 million barrels in 2027. It notes that some of the deferred or lost demand in 2026 will rebound in the following year. The recovery hinges on improved economic conditions and a reduction in geopolitical disruptions. The organization anticipates increased demand from outside advanced economies, particularly in non-OECD member countries, where an increase of about 1.8 million barrels per day is expected in 2027. On the supply side, growth outside the OPEC+ alliance will be modest, with the organization projecting an addition of 600,000 barrels per day in 2027, supported by the revival of production in countries such as Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. This should allow the market to absorb the rising demand without causing oversupply. As oil prices continue to rise — reaching around $90 per barrel for Brent — amid the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and geopolitical risks, warnings abound that ongoing unrest could further damage the global economy and slow consumption. Nonetheless, the organization remains optimistic that demand will start to recover and market balance will improve significantly in 2027.

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