Global oil supplies at risk of depletion

The global oil market is facing a severe crisis due to the ongoing war between the United States and Iran, which has resulted in a loss of approximately 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the conflict began — the largest loss since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The daily gap between supply and demand reaches around 5 million barrels, with a shortfall in Gulf supplies amounting to 11 million barrels per day, and disruptions to the Kazakhstani oil pipeline, which lost 1.8 million barrels daily in July. While the International Energy Agency (IEA) holds stocks of 1.5 billion barrels, the actual government-held available inventories amount to only 900 million barrels — enough to cover the deficit for 180 days. U.S. strategic reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since 1983, with only about 200 million barrels available for immediate release, sufficient for just 40 days. This situation means markets are now vulnerable to sharp price increases, with limited capacity to respond to any additional shocks.

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