Middle East crisis transforms economy

Six months have passed since the American-Israeli bombing of Iran, which caused major disruptions in global energy markets and led to a rise in oil prices (Brent crude exceeded $120 per barrel in April, with an expected average of $90 in 2026 compared to $70 last year). These developments affected fuel prices such as diesel and jet fuel, especially amid ongoing disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the deterioration of Russia’s energy infrastructure. The crisis also heightened risks to food and fertilizer supplies, with food prices reaching their highest levels in over three years and expectations of increased global food inflation. Conversely, global stock markets performed well, with the MSCI index exceeding $105 trillion despite the declines in the dollar and gold, driven by massive investment flows into the artificial intelligence sector. In the Gulf region, there have been declines in exports and assets, with forecasts of a significant economic contraction and negative impacts on real estate markets and debt prices.

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