Global economy signals from bond market

The global bond market experienced a sharp increase in yields after the U.S. Treasury Department intervened in August to calm limited disturbances. This led to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reaching their highest level since 2025, raising concerns about rising inflation and deteriorating financial conditions in many countries. In the United States, the 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.77%, and markets are now heavily anticipating a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting, with expectations pointing toward a possible 25 basis point increase. Japan also saw its 10-year bond yields rise to the highest level since 1996, amid growing global economic repercussions due to inflation fears. There has been increased borrowing by companies, especially those working in artificial intelligence, which has significantly ramped up bond issuances this year. Analysts view the rising yields as a warning sign for the global economy, despite the continued strength of stock markets, as financial conditions worsen and global debt levels remain high.

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