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Since the beginning of the year, Russia has shipped over 10 million barrels of crude oil to China via the Arctic route. This development reflects an increasing reliance on this corridor as an alternative to traditional shipping routes, driven by export disruptions in the Middle East and navigation tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Northern Sea Route, which connects western Russian ports to Asian markets, is shorter than the Suez Canal. It is expected that since the start of the year, the total shipped volume may approach 13 million barrels, matching the total transported during the entire navigation season in 2025, indicating a rise in trade between Moscow and Beijing. So far, shipments have been limited to China, but exporters anticipate that other shipments may head to Asian markets such as India, as seasonal searches for less risky routes continue. The Arctic navigation season, which runs from July to October, is crucial in determining shipment volumes, amid China's efforts to diversify sources, reduce dependence on Iran, and avoid the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, cooperation is moving towards expanding container transportation via the Arctic passage, with Korean and Chinese companies launching trial voyages to assess commercial viability. This aligns with Russia's plan to increase cargo volumes on this route to 20 million tons by 2030, despite ongoing challenges related to ice conditions, vessel availability, insurance, and logistical support.
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