ECB rate hike forecast for September

The European Central Bank is most likely to raise interest rates at its September meeting, aiming to control the rising inflation caused by increasing energy prices, especially after recent surges in oil and gas prices and geopolitical tensions. The hike is expected to be around 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 2.5%, in order to prevent inflation from returning to more than 3% in August due to energy costs, despite a weak labor market and slowing wage growth. This increase may be the final one in the current tightening cycle, but continued rises in energy prices could prompt the bank to raise interest rates again. Data indicates that the European economy has shown solid resilience, but rising yields on European government bonds reinforce the tightening of financial conditions and impact monetary policy. Monitoring the influence of energy prices on inflation and wages remains crucial for the future.

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