UBS predicts two US rate hikes in 2023

UBS Wealth Management expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year by 25 basis points at each meeting, after previously anticipating no change in rates throughout the year. This outlook has changed due to the strength of labor market data and statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating a more hawkish stance, especially following the addition of 162,000 jobs in August and a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%. Additionally, the market now prices in about a 58% likelihood of a rate hike at the September meeting, reflecting a trend toward tightening monetary policy to address inflation risks.

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