US yield curve signals economic risk

The inversion of the yield curve in the U.S. bond market indicates a potential economic slowdown, as the spread between the ten-year and two-year bond yields has fallen to its lowest level since early 2025. This raises the likelihood that the ten-year bond yield will dip below that of short-term bonds. Such an inversion has historically served as a predictive signal before each of the last eight recessions since the 1960s. It reflects investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to high levels to curb inflation, especially with predictions of another rate hike following the first increase in three years.

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