Gulf crude rebounds amid product crisis

Oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to approximately 98% of pre-war levels, temporarily supporting global markets. However, the refined product markets, such as diesel and gasoline, continue to face significant supply shortages and record-high prices, having recovered only about half of their previous capacity at three million barrels per day. This is due to infrastructure damage to refineries, security risks during transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the impacts of the Ukrainian war on oil supplies, and the consequences of Russia's attacks on refineries and supply chains. In the United States, diesel prices reached a historic high of $6.41 per gallon, a rise of over 70% in a year, increasing inflationary pressures on consumers. The government is considering imposing export restrictions to control prices, which could deepen the global market crisis ahead of the Congressional elections.

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