Fed Member: Inflation Trends Will Guide Rates

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, affirmed that the persistence of sharp inflation shocks will determine the trajectory of U.S. interest rate hikes. She explained that the interest rate increase in September was aimed at addressing inflation risks, but noted that the need for further increases depends on whether the shocks driving inflation—such as tariffs, oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict, and artificial intelligence—continue or fade away. Daly pointed out that temporary shocks might not require additional rate hikes; however, if these shocks worsen or persist—especially with the potential imposition of new tariffs—that would prolong inflationary pressures and necessitate further interest rate increases. She emphasized that the demand for AI-supported chips could increase inflationary pressures, making the impact of these shocks more sustained.

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