U.S. hikes oil price forecast to $98 for 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecast for 2026 to an average of $98 per barrel, an 8% increase from previous estimates. This adjustment reflects the rapid decline in global inventories and ongoing supply shortages in the diesel markets. The upward revision comes amid military tensions that have halted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, which historically accounts for about 20% of global oil supplies, along with attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. Diesel prices in the United States are expected to remain above $6 per gallon throughout October, then gradually decline to an average of $4.50 in 2027, as Middle Eastern oil production and exports continue to recover via alternative routes, and Saudi Arabia resumes shipments through the East-West pipeline. The forecasts also indicate a reduction in oil production from 4.5 million barrels per day in late 2026 to 2.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2027, which could push Brent crude prices down to around $84 per barrel in 2027.

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