Impacts of a Blocked Bab el-Mandeb and Lebanon

Reports indicate that closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most vital maritime routes for global trade and energy supplies, could pose a significant threat to the region and the world if the Houthis carry out such an action—especially if it involves an attack on Iranian infrastructure. The wave of threats comes amid Iranian escalation and heightened regional conflicts. Experts believe that while the Houthis may be able to temporarily disrupt navigation, they are unlikely to close the strait completely and permanently. There are also concerns about limited military escalation within Yemen, with the situation potentially worsening if Iran intervenes directly, possibly leading to a wider regional conflict. Economically, Lebanon is worried that any closure of the strait would drive up shipping and energy costs and increase inflation rates—particularly as Lebanon relies heavily on imports—with anticipated food and energy prices rising between 5 and 20 percent.

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