Is the Shrine Doctrine Guiding Iran Toward Nukes

American intelligence estimates reveal that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ebrahim Raisi, is more inclined to develop nuclear weapons compared to his predecessor, Ali Khamenei, who was hesitant despite the continued development of the nuclear program. Although Raisi has not publicly declared any pursuit of nuclear armament, the United States believes he may be moving closer to making a political decision to do so, especially as Iran intensifies its uranium enrichment activities and safeguards its sites against potential military strikes. Additionally, recent conflicts have heightened Tehran’s motivations to acquire nuclear deterrence, with the possibility that such a decision is close to implementation, potentially reshaping the balance of confrontation between Iran, Washington, and Israel.

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