Framework Agreement and Peace Prospects

The author discusses the outcomes and challenges of the Framework Agreement signed between Lebanon and Israel, focusing on the extent to which the strategic interests of the parties allow for the establishment of lasting peace. He points out that the success of the agreement does not depend solely on its text but also on how the interests of the regional actors evolve, which are often conflicting or incompatible. He explains that Israel believes its security requires eliminating all sources of threat, while Iran has invested for decades in building regional influence, including through Hezbollah, making a change of course difficult without broader shifts in the balance of power. He concludes that sustainable peace requires consensus on the parties' interests, not just agreements, and that Lebanese society should strive to build an independent state capable of defending its sovereignty—rather than remaining hostage to the fluctuations of regional and international politics.

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