U.S. intelligence warns of possible limited attack by Putin on NATO

Reports have indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may test NATO by carrying out limited attacks on one of the alliance's member states in the coming years, aiming to assess the alliance’s unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. According to US intelligence assessments, the scenarios include cyberattacks and limited military incursions, with the likelihood of increased activity between this fall and 2029—especially given the pressures on Putin in the Ukraine war, the escalation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces, and the oil sector. It is possible that Putin may escalate the conflict by targeting the Baltic states or Poland, with the goal of dividing the alliance or relieving pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, NATO continues to prepare for the potential implementation of these scenarios.

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