Iraq's example predicts Lebanon's future

The article focuses on comparing the political and military situations in Iraq and Lebanon, emphasizing the issue of arms control and decisions regarding war and peace. It points out that Lebanon's history shows that changes in Iraq during similar crises directly impact Lebanon's internal affairs. For example, American interventions in 1958 following Iraq's coup and the shift in U.S. policies towards Lebanon are clear illustrations of this. Today, Iraq faces a debate over the return of military authority to the state amid sectarian divisions, with Iran intervening to protect its influence. Iraq is also striving to integrate armed groups into the state system. The article links these developments to the situation in Lebanon, stressing that Iraq’s success in establishing state control over weapons will serve as a benchmark for Lebanon's future— which is also troubled by the presence of an independent armed force, Hezbollah. Regional interests and political conflicts in Iraq and Syria demonstrate that the area is moving toward restoring the state's monopoly on power. Any change in Iraq could be a prelude to similar shifts in Lebanon.

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