Unifil's Role and Lebanese Army Assurance

The future of international presence in South Lebanon after the end of UNIFIL's mandate in December 2026 depends on a structured transition to a European mission led by the European Union, with the aim of continuing the mission to maintain stability and support the Lebanese army. Estimates indicate that the most likely scenario is the establishment of a European force monitoring the ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution 1701, with the understanding that its success requires Lebanese and international acceptance, as well as coordination with the Lebanese army. This transition may face legal and political challenges, while the risks of escalation increase if a clear role is not agreed upon, especially concerning Hezbollah's weapons.

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