UNIFIL Mandate Ends and Future of Peacekeeping

The study issued by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies concludes that the future of peacekeeping in South Lebanon, after the end of the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) on December 31, 2026, is predominantly heading towards a structured transition to a European mission led by the European Union. This mission will continue to carry out tasks of maintaining stability and supporting the Lebanese army, provided there is Lebanese and international consensus on its mandate, while taking into account changing regional and international circumstances. Estimates indicate that replacing UNIFIL with the European mission is the most likely scenario, but the study warns of legal and security obstacles that could impede this process, such as the necessity of ensuring international legitimacy and coordination with the Lebanese army. It also highlights the potential for expanding the mission’s mandates or encountering risks of escalation if consensus is not achieved.

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