Hormuz Strait and Oil Price Impact

Analysis has shown that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most vital maritime passages for global oil transportation, which historically saw an average of 20.9 million barrels passing through daily before the recent crisis, threatens a severe oil price crisis. The closure of the strait led to an increase in Brent prices from around $70 to over $120 in March, then receded to about $90, while the market remains sensitive to any further escalation. Although there are some alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, their capacities are insufficient to fully replace the supply, especially given the threats of Iranian attacks and military movements. Studies indicate that if the closure continues until the end of 2026, oil prices could rise to approximately $132 per barrel, with significant economic repercussions. Relying solely on strategic reserves does not fully compensate for the flow of oil through the strait, leaving markets vulnerable to substantial volatility if the situation persists.

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