War Reverses Recovery to 6.4% Decline

Lebanon's economic forecasts for 2026 indicate a contraction of 6.4%, whereas an growth of 4% had been previously expected. This decline is due to the ongoing war's repercussions, which have caused significant losses, including the destruction of approximately 90,747 housing units and a 52.8% drop in tourist revenue, leading to losses of around 3 billion dollars in the tourism sector alone. Additionally, displacement and destruction have resulted in a 6% decrease in consumption, with living costs rising and inflation expected to increase from 14.6% in 2025 to 17.5% in 2026. The country is becoming increasingly dependent on imports, while its external account deteriorates, projected to remain in deficit at 21.3% of GDP. The figures highlight that the costs of reconstruction and war's aftermath will be long-term, with financial and economic challenges intensifying due to escalating conflict and ongoing destruction.

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