Hezbollah's Autumn or System's Fall

The article discusses the shift in the American stance towards Hezbollah, where the focus has increasingly shifted to its strategic identity and its intrinsic connection to Iran, regardless of the nationalities of its members or their participation in Lebanese institutions. This change weakens the balance of power within the Lebanese system, which previously treated the group as a dual-structured entity with political and military wings, relying on a functional separation between them to maintain relations and avoid full-scale confrontation. This development raises questions about the future of Lebanon’s governance system, especially amid rising external pressures and the diminishing capacity of local forces to make independent decisions. Such circumstances threaten Lebanon’s independence and highlight its growing inability to formulate its national interests on its own. If Hezbollah’s decline continues, it will have significant repercussions for the entire political system, as its legitimacy has been built on its existence and influence. This could lead to the breakdown of current balances and hinder the establishment of an effective state possessing full decision-making authority.

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