Lebanon's Six-Year Cycle Repeats

The article analyzes a historical pattern that repeats in Lebanon approximately every fifteen years, where major crises arise related to internal and regional power balances, leading to profound changes in the political system and sovereignty. After independence in 1943, Lebanon experienced crises such as 1958, divisions leading up to the Civil War in 1975, then the Taif Agreement in 1989, the assassination of Hariri in 2005, and finally the 2019 uprising and the massive Beirut port explosion in 2020. The article reveals that these cycles recur because of the accumulation of contradictions, and that the current phase may signal the beginning of a new transitional period concerning issues of state sovereignty and the monopoly of arms, rather than being merely a continuation of a history known for crises that erupt suddenly. It emphasizes that Lebanon’s failure to implement necessary changes without paying a heavy price makes it crucial for the Lebanese to instigate a direct political transformation now, before crises recur once more.

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