Lebanon's six-year political cycle

The article focused on the cycle of political changes in Lebanon, which repeats approximately every fifteen years. During these cycles, major crises accumulate, leading to explosions and fundamental shifts in the political system. It begins with Lebanon’s independence in 1943, passing through crises such as 1958, the Civil War in 1975, the end of the war and the Taif Agreement in 1989-1990, then the assassination of Hariri and Syria's withdrawal in 2005, and finally the protests, the financial collapse, and the Beirut port explosion tragedy in 2020. The article indicates that each of these cycles involved key issues such as sovereignty, illegal weapons, and the governing system. It emphasizes that Lebanon repeatedly reinstates itself after each crisis, but often delays necessary reforms, paying the price later. The article predicts that the current phase after 2020 marks the beginning of a new transformation, with the country moving toward a focus on restoring sovereignty and monopolizing weapons, and that immediate changes might occur due to circumstances around 2025-2026.

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