Syria's Shift: When Will Lebanon Follow

The article addresses the changing political and regional landscape in Lebanon and Syria following Syria's transformations and regional shifts. It focuses on Lebanon's opportunities and potential for rebuilding its institutions and restoring its sovereignty. It explains that Syria has entered a phase of state reconstruction and regional re-engagement, while parts of the Lebanese system still operate based on old rules. Currently, Lebanon faces a paradox: its regional context is shifting, yet its internal structure remains rooted in outdated balances. The decisive issue highlighted is the weaponry, especially Hezbollah’s arms, which represent a duality of power that affects national sovereignty. Building the state and regaining sovereign decision-making are among the primary challenges. The article affirms that Lebanon has a unique opportunity to initiate reforms—including strengthening institutions, controlling borders, and establishing balanced, reciprocal relations with Syria—so that strategic decision-making resides with official institutions. The current regional changes could enable Lebanon to shift from being a battleground for external conflicts to a truly sovereign state, provided it possesses the political capacity to shape its own options rather than passively awaiting external developments.

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