Majority of their people - Lawyer Rafiq Ouri Girezi

The article highlights that Lebanon is living in a state of divergence between reality and truth, particularly regarding Hezbollah's strength and influence. It notes that the government has faced significant setbacks in recent months, including the loss of its leading position and deterrence capabilities, a retreat in its territorial reach, and a dismantling of its ability to exert real influence—despite the party's denials. Analyses suggest that these losses go beyond merely the missile stockpiles; they also involve the loss of time and the capacity to leverage its power, which threatens its continued existence as an ineffective armed entity. Different possible outcomes are anticipated, including negotiated disarmament, war, gradual erosion, or transformation into a larger political party. The article also emphasizes that the persistence of weapons outside the state exacerbates the crisis, reaffirming that civil wars only arise when there is a state absence. Several country experiences demonstrate that early disarmament leads to political gains, while delaying it results in losses. Ultimately, it concludes that Hezbollah's true victory lies in the ability to face the truth and transform the issue from a military conflict into a sustainable political project. It affirms that sovereignty is not achieved in installments and that the last meaningful victory would be the state asserting full control over its arms, restoring Lebanon’s stability and preventing further defeats.

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