Future Scenarios for Yemen Beyond Bab al-Mandab

The article discusses the developments in the Yemen conflict, particularly with the escalation around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most strategic maritime passages connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It focuses on the possible future scenarios of the conflict through five main options: a limited military operation ending in negotiations, a prolonged war of attrition, the conflict expanding into a wider regional dispute, a reshuffling of power within Yemen, and the potential return to political negotiations. The importance of controlling Bab al-Mandab is highlighted due to its significance for commercial navigation and energy transit. These developments are part of broader regional and international calculations involving parties such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, and Turkey. The outlook remains open and depends on the outcomes of current battles and the stability of political positions.

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