US intel warns Russia may test NATO unity

The article discusses Russia's potential escalation in targeting NATO through limited strikes, amid increasing pressure on Putin in the Ukraine war and the reduction of U.S. ammunition stocks, which are vital due to supplies to Ukraine and support for other allies. Estimates suggest that Russia may carry out cyberattacks, unacknowledged armed assaults, or limited incursions on the alliance's eastern front between Fall 2023 and 2029, aiming to create divisions within NATO. Meanwhile, NATO continues to explore more aggressive options, preparing to counter hybrid threats, as concerns grow over shortages of key weapon systems such as Patriot missiles and Stinger launchers. Reports also indicate Russia might be testing NATO’s resilience through exploratory attacks, such as Russian missiles falling inside Poland and drones entering Romanian airspace, with a potential escalation threatening to trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which obligates collective defense against attacks on any member.

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