Has the ECB concluded its rate hikes

The European Central Bank's analysis suggests that the cycle of monetary tightening may be nearing its end. This comes after a 25 basis point increase in deposit rates in June to combat rising inflation caused by supply disruptions in the energy market, particularly the surge in oil and natural gas prices resulting from the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Despite recent inflation increases, data indicates that the rise in energy costs has not broadly transmitted to the rest of the economy. Economic growth remains weak, with growth expectations continuing to decline—especially from 1.2% to 0.6% this year—reducing the need for further interest rate hikes. Additionally, policymakers’ statements point toward a pause in monetary tightening, with an emphasis on continuously assessing incoming data. Since inflation appears somewhat temporary, it is expected that interest rates will remain stable throughout the rest of 2026.

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