Tunisia Faces 9B Dinar Oil Cost at $120 Barrel

When the price of a barrel of oil exceeds $120, Tunisia will face significant pressure on its budget, as the annual energy costs could increase by approximately 9 billion dinars, based on the assumption that prices remain at this level throughout the year. Although current forecasts suggest a 26% probability that Brent prices will reach $120 before the end of 2026, the most likely scenario is that prices will stay lower, around $85 to $91. The current rise in oil prices, which has surpassed $101, adds to the strain on Tunisia's finances, even if prices do not reach $120. Persistently high prices threaten to worsen the budget deficit, negatively impact fuel subsidies, and deplete foreign reserves.

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