Iran and US Tensions After Calm

The American airstrikes on Iran have been temporarily halted in a surprising move by the United States. In response, Iran similarly ceased targeting Washington's allies in the region. Analysis indicates that this calm is fragile and aims to open the door to negotiations or to establish clear points, though it could collapse at any moment. The reasons include the high military costs and the U.S. reliance on blockade and sanctions rather than costly military operations, despite Trump’s threats to hit sensitive facilities, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister also discussed the possibility of Israel participating in the strikes, but this depends on shifts in the balance of power, as many oppose Israeli involvement out of fear of losing control over the outcomes. Currently, the prospects for negotiations with Iran remain weak due to hardline conservative control, with a maritime blockade ongoing and Iranian capabilities to control maritime security in the region still present.

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