Aging Risks in North Africa

The countries of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have experienced an unprecedented decline in birth rates, driven by economic and social factors such as delayed marriage age, rising divorce rates, increased professional ambitions among women, and economic pressures. Tunisia is the most affected, with a fertility rate of 1.58 children per woman in 2023, expected to decrease further to 1.53 in 2024. Meanwhile, Morocco records a rate of 1.97, and Algeria 2.61. This decline is attributed to rational decisions by families in response to economic and social conditions, alongside expanded education and women’s independence. These trends have led to an aging population and increased pressure on pension systems, with forecasts indicating continued declines in the coming years and a growing need for migration to maintain demographic balance.

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