Potential outcomes after US-Iran 60-day window

The 60-day deadline set by the United States and Iran has ended without any diplomatic progress, reflecting the growing mutual distrust between the two sides. The available data indicate a continuation of maximum pressure policies and American sanctions, while Iran is moving toward managing escalation and increasing the costs of war, with preparations to expand the scope of confrontation, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Analyses suggest that Iran is planning to increase pressure on the United States and its regional opponents, including expanding military operations and increasing the production of missiles and drones. Meanwhile, circumstances are leaning toward the possibility of greater escalation, particularly as the U.S. mid-term elections approach, which could lead to more intense American responses—especially if the election results favor a hardening of the current administration. The current conditions place the region on the brink of an escalation pathway, with the potential for open confrontation returning if diplomatic efforts fail to make progress.

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