Reasons behind wars and their recurring cycles

The article discusses the nature and dangers of major wars, clarifying that many wars do not occur suddenly but result from repeated strategic mistakes, starting with a misjudgment of the opponent’s capabilities, passing through overlapping interests and changing goals, and ending with escalation spirals that make retreat more costly as losses increase. It also emphasizes that the endings of wars are not always military victories; they may involve internal collapses or unbalanced settlements that sow the seeds for new conflicts. The article highlights the rising global tensions, especially amid the interconnectedness of major conflicts and the increasing risk of a third world war, stemming from a series of small decisions based on incomplete information and mistaken estimates, coupled with declining trust in the international system and its rules. Additionally, it clarifies that wars often begin with a small mistake that can escalate into a major catastrophe, underscoring the importance of understanding the causes and factors of escalation to avoid destructive conflicts on a global scale.

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