Israeli Intelligence's Half-Century Spy History

A report highlights the failure of Israel's military intelligence, "Amman," to predict the October 7, 2023 attack on Gaza, despite establishing a "Devil's Advocate" oversight department to address forecasting errors stemming from similar failures in the 1973 war. Over fifty years, this department has failed to deliver accurate predictions regarding Hamas's intentions or the scale of the attack, despite issuing scenarios and early warnings. These warnings neither accurately anticipated the attack nor its timing or magnitude. The report demonstrates that limited resources, personal relationships, and a confrontational organizational culture contributed to the department's limited impact. Recent organizational changes have not ensured improved forecasting, reflecting a deep crisis within the Israeli intelligence system.

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