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Economists' Prediction Markets Fall Short
Prediction markets, originally envisioned by economists for forecasting elections and economic events, have shifted largely toward sports betting, which now dominates platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Despite efforts to restrict sports-related contracts, they constitute the majority of trading volume, raising concerns about public health and addiction risks. While supporters believe markets improve information aggregation, experts acknowledge potential harms from gambling-like activities facilitated by these platforms.
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