The Silent Majority Gap

Polling has repeatedly misjudged elections, from Literary Digest’s 1936 prediction to mistaken forecasts in 1948, 2004, 2012 and 2016. In recent primaries, partisan polls reportedly overstated progressive support, contributing to some candidates dropping out. The article says polls are better treated as snapshots of opinion than predictions of who will vote, citing low response rates and pollsters’ modeling decisions as continuing challenges.

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