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With Democrats controlling Congress and Donald Trump in the White House, historical data show the S&P 500 averaged 4.9% annually under that political arrangement from 1953 to 2025. Separately, the index gained an average of 15.4% in the 12 months after midterm elections since 1950, with every period in the study posting a positive return. The article cautions that neither figure predicts future performance, which also depends on factors such as corporate earnings, inflation, interest rates and economic growth.

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