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Home voters pose same risk as voters
Subtraction from Trump’s 2024 voter coalition poses a primary threat to Republicans in the 2026 elections, with many supporters disillusioned or choosing not to vote. Unlike the 2018 “blue wave,” expected turnout will likely be lower, and fewer new voters are expected to join the electorate. Polls indicate declining support for Trump among nonvoters and potential young voters, while Democratic turnout appears higher, raising concerns for Republican efforts to maintain their base. The outcome may hinge on each side controlling voter subtraction, with Republicans facing greater challenges in mobilizing their supporters.
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