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US intelligence agencies assess Iran now has the capability to effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will, significantly impacting the global economy. Despite a framework agreement to reopen the waterway, Iran demonstrated its ability to close the strait during ongoing conflicts, leveraging this as a strategic weapon. Iran has also learned to target Gulf energy infrastructure and maintain a credible military threat, including missile and drone capabilities, further complicating efforts to guarantee free passage. The assessments highlight Iran’s increased leverage and the potential for future closures, which could escalate if negotiations with the US collapse.
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