Iran after the Supreme Leader: the emergence of a two-state structure within a single nation

Tensions in Iran have escalated following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The country's power structure has become more complicated, characterized by the existence of two internal states: one diplomatic and civilian led by the president and officials such as the foreign minister, and another military led by the Revolutionary Guard, which holds real decision-making authority, especially in security and economic matters. Reports indicate that the Revolutionary Guard is managing the dominant influence over political decision-making and is working to consolidate its hegemony by appointing loyal figures and sidelining civilian entities. This reflects a shift from religious rule to military dominance, with a dual system that governs the country unofficially and quasi-coup-like. Additionally, negotiations with the West are intertwined with the Guard’s influence, revealing a complex balance of power that threatens the stability of the expected agreements.

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