Iran's Direction: Foreign Ministry vs Guards
The article points to the ongoing escalation in the Arabian Gulf and Iran’s wavering stance between diplomatic and military brinkmanship, especially in the context of tensions with the United States. The issue concerns Iran's attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz to navigation through conditional negotiations, requiring the approval of the Revolutionary Guards, which faces obstacles. At the same time, Iran relies on relatively weak regional military proxies, with the Revolutionary Guards’ influence decreasing both internally and regionally. This has heightened prospects for negotiations due to fears of future strikes on Iran’s infrastructure and severe impacts on its economy. The internal situation in Iran is worsening, marked by widespread protests and intensifying divisions among decision-making centers. This could expose the regime to internal confrontation or a scenario similar to Syria, where opposition forces are gaining momentum for liberation and gradually distancing themselves from central domination.
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