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IEA Sees Q4 Oil Surplus
The International Energy Agency expects the global oil market to return to surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with supply forecast to reach 105 million barrels per day—1.7 million barrels per day above demand—as Middle Eastern exports recover faster than demand grows. It said 71 million barrels of emergency reserves, including 15 million barrels of diesel, would be available by the end of February, while the OPEC+ alliance pumped 41.23 million barrels per day in October. The agency expects global supply to rise to 108.1 million barrels per day in 2027, with a surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day.
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