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China's $1T Surplus Risk
China’s trade surplus exceeded $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, as exports grew 35.2% in October, driven by demand for technology and advanced industries. Semiconductor exports rose 111.1%. The surplus alone does not mean a global crisis is imminent, but it reflects an imbalance between strong production and weak domestic demand, while intensifying competition for industries abroad. China’s surplus with the European Union reached $310.7 billion, compared with $241.6 billion a year earlier. The IMF warns that global growth will slow to 3.1% in 2026, while tariffs and trade restrictions could escalate disputes. Avoiding this will depend on China achieving a better balance between production and consumption, and its trading partners strengthening their competitiveness without resorting to broad protectionism.
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