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Oil market reports indicate that the recent rise in oil prices reflects tensions and strikes in the Gulf region, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports around 20 million barrels of oil daily—about 25% of global oil trade. Following threats to close the strait, oil flow dropped sharply from 21.6 million barrels per day at the end of 2025 to approximately 4.9 million in mid-2026, causing severe price fluctuations. The Brent crude price has averaged around $94 since the start of the conflict, though this is below some analysts' projections of $150. Despite measures such as releasing reserves and increasing production outside the Middle East, risks remain due to ongoing attacks and disruptions to shipments. Oil supplies are expected to stay tight until early 2027, with projections indicating a production contraction in the region of about 8.3 million barrels per day in July 2026.
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