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The article discusses the warnings issued by the CEO of the "Turm" Group regarding oil market forecasts amidst the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis caused by the state of war between Iran and the United States, which could last for several years. Data indicates that shipping activity through the Strait remains weak, with the amount of transported oil decreasing by over 77% between the last quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. This downturn has led to a record decline in shipping company profits, with Turm Group recording a historic profit of $338 million in the second quarter. The report explains that the ongoing crisis is raising shipping costs and hindering oil trade movement, even though oil prices have fallen. This is because shipping rates depend on the number of ships and waiting times, not just the price per barrel, which reacts quickly to potential settlement prospects. It is expected that shipping activity will remain constrained until the end of 2027, with continued reductions in oil flows through Hormuz and a gradual easing of restrictions expected by September.
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