Black Sea crisis impacts Arab bakeries
The Arab market is facing disruptions in wheat supplies due to the simultaneous decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine caused by military attacks and tensions in the Black Sea. This has led to a roughly 25% increase in wheat prices since January 2026, reaching the highest levels in two years. The situation threatens food security in the region, as Arab countries heavily depend on imports from these two sources—particularly Egypt, which sources over 82% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. This crisis is resulting in higher wheat import costs, with rising futures prices and direct impacts on bakery products and other food items. Additionally, the decline in European production and increased shipping costs are exerting further pressure on Arab markets. For example, the Egyptian government has raised subsidized bread prices for the first time since 1989 and is implementing measures to mitigate the crisis. However, challenges remain due to the lack of a clear mechanism to reopen the grain corridor across the Black Sea, keeping import bills high and maintaining significant obstacles for food policy in the region.
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